#16 Texas A&M vs #15 Miss. State: Game Preview & Prediction

MSU’s Snow Bowl Uniforms

#15 MSU, is just hours away from what Dan Mullen has labeled as the most important game of the season, vs #16 Texas A&M on Saturday morning. The Aggies come to town with the SEC’s best Offense, and an aggressive Defense, with losses to only #5 LSU and #7 Florida on their resume’. State hopes to duplicate the performances of the Tiger and Gator Defenses that kept Johnny Manziel bottled up and on the sideline. After the Aggies’ 5 game winning streak was snapped by LSU, A&M set the Plains ablaze in Auburn last week, leaving town with a 63-21 victory. MSU on the other hand, is looking to get back in the swing of things on both sides of the ball, after being dominated in all facets against #1 Alabama. Anyway, let’s segway from that short preview into our Keys to Victory & Prediction (I hate the word segway, but just used it).

Keys to Victory
When I look at how these two teams matchup, there are some things that would fall in the category of just plain ‘common sense’, that jump off of the stat sheet. Other factors that could possibly influence the game, you have to dig for. So, here are my keys:

#1 Contain Johnny Manziel, #2 Turn Russell Loose, #3 Smart Special Teams Play, and #4 Create a Tough Atmosphere. Here is why I chose 3 things…

-#1 All week long, we’ve talked about Johnny Manziel and his numbers. In case you missed it, the short and sweet version is this- he’s #3 nationally in Total Offense, averaging 376 ypg. Not only that, but to go with his 276 ypg passing, he’s the SEC’s leading rusher, posting 99 ypg. The reason I said ‘contain’ and not ‘stop’ Manziel, is because I don’t think you can really cause the kid to be a non-factor. You can only limit him. And like so many great Offensive performers in CFB right now, some players are just going to get a certain amount of yards, make a certain amount of big plays, the only question is- can you force them to into mistakes, and from making so many of those explosive plays that they are known for? State has to be careful blitzing Johnny Football, because the kid thrives when opposing D’s over pursue. Lane assignments, spying, and positioning will be key for Chris Wilson’s Defense, in providing the pressure that’s needed, without letting Manziel run free. Another thing, no more ‘whiffing’ on sacks and opportunities to hit the QB, such as what we saw last week vs Bama. Poise and control in the blitzing game- essential.
-#2 One thing I predicted around week 4, and something we’ve seen with exception in the MTSU game, is Tyler Russell being allowed to put the ball in the air close to 30 to 35 times a game. This week, putting the ball in Russell’s hands and allowing him to spread it around to 10 different targets is essential. Why? A&M’s Defense allows 249 ypg through the air. That’s good for 80th nationally. Looking back, I counted 10 passing TDs that A&M has allowed on the season, but with exception to La Tech, WHO on earth have they faced that’s truly a strong, challenging QB? No one. That tells me that even against subpar passing Offenses, this Defense struggles and has issues. Throw Tyler Russell’s accuracy and poise in the mix, and he could have a field day vs the Aggies. If Russell is going to post big numbers though, the Bulldog OL must protect him from one of the SEC’s most underrated DLs, that paves the way for averages of 3+ sacks per game, as well as 6+ tackles for loss. Look for the Dawgs to pass a lot on the opening possessions, which should open up the run game.
-#3 The Bama game was an absolute disaster on Special Teams. There was a missed block that led to a blocked FG. Bad decisions in the punt return game, which includes the lack of awareness that led to a fumble and poor field position (the entire game). A 50+ yd kickoff return was negated by a fumble, and another 45+ yd return was almost fumbled away as well. Terrible night. The reason I chose Special Teams, outside of the fact that they always play an important role in every game, is due to the ‘evenness’ I see in the 2 teams. A&M’s punt coverage and net punting is as solid as MSU’s, so Banks and Co., have to be smart in the return game. When it comes to punting, Baker Swedenburg just needs to keep doing what he has done all year, which is allow ‘ZERO’ yds in returns. State is the only team in the country who hasn’t surrendered a yard on punt returns, which is an amazing stat. That’s important, because the Aggies are 13th in the country in punt returns (15 ypr), which is due to Dustin Harris. In the kicking game, A&M is 33rd in kickoff returns, while MSU is 43rd (that’s a wash, 2 yds difference). There’s also not much difference in PK between the 2 teams either. A&M- 10/16; State- 9/15. Long story short, get points when you can in the kicking game, win the field position battle, and make smart decisions when the ball is in your hands in the return game.
-#4 11 a.m. kick, dangit! I’m not a morning person (ask Andrson)…I do not like early games…which means the majority of yall probably feel the same way. But, I’ll be there yelling and ringing like crazy (responsibly). With that said, we must create a tough environment for A&M to play in on Saturday morning. Even though we are only 55,000+ strong, we offer the best atmosphere in the country per capita. Bring it Bulldog fans!!! A homecoming type crowd, that’s just waking up, will provide little energy to back our Dawgs, who need our support more than ever. Get loud and stay loud. Pre-game to post-game. A difficult atmosphere could rattle the Aggies, who have to make the long trip to Starkville for an early kick.

My Thoughts
Many of you have played baseball at some point in your life. Remember what it felt like to take the weighted donut off of your bat, and step in the batter’s box and take that first practice swing of the bat without the weight? Something tells me that State is going to experience some of that same feeling this weekend. The weight that was on the bat last week- was Alabama. That bat was heavy, weighed us down, but I think prepared us for the rest of the season. The opposition will be good, but not as stout. Not as fast. Not as physical. Don’t get me wrong, Saturday is going to be a knock down drag out. But, I think what our players went up against last week, can only help them this week. Our players are focused, ready to get the bad taste out of their mouth from last week, and are fully aware that the makings of a great season are on the line. I think State does just enough to contain Manziel, but I look for Christine Michael and Melina to hurt us more in the run game. I can see the D forcing the talented QB into 2 turnovers-1 INT and 1 fumble. I see Russell throwing for 280 yds, and the MSU run game finally having a steady aid emerge for RB LaDarius Perkins, in Nick Griffin. Call me weird, it’s the way I see it. Here’s to lookin’ good in our new unies, while not getting beat!

Prediction: MSU 34   A&M 30

Around the SEC:
UF 38  Mizzou 12
Vandy 34  UK  17
UGA  30  tsun 21
Bama 27  LSU 12

Your thoughts & predictions?